This story tracks the dramatic rise and fall of Comex copper prices in 2024, driven by tariff announcements, exemptions, and ongoing uncertainty around future trade policies.
Early in 2024, markets started buzzing with speculation about potential copper tariffs. Rumors of duties and an investigation into imports surfaced by late February, creating expectations of tariffs on refined copper, input materials, and products. This anticipation pushed Comex contracts upward, creating a noticeable split from LME prices.
The tariff talk wasn’t just noise—it had real impact. By July, Comex copper prices became the most volatile they’d been all year, as buyers and traders positioned themselves for what was coming.
Then, the bombshell dropped: a 50% duty on copper was confirmed, effective August 1, 2024, far steeper and sooner than expected. Prices skyrocketed past the previous all-time high from May, peaking at $12,790 per metric ton on July 25—a staggering 41.74% increase since the year’s start. Meanwhile, LME prices rose a more modest 11.55% over the same period.
Traders cashed in big on the widening arbitrage between Comex and LME prices throughout 2024. But the party didn’t last long. Days after the peak, the White House backtracked, exempting refined copper and input materials from duties.
That exemption announcement sent Comex prices tumbling hard, dropping 24.56% from their peak in the final days of July. The price collapse erased the split between the Comex and LME markets. While some investors got burned—Goldman Sachs advised clients to go long on copper just before the sell-off—others saw opportunity in the chaos. The U.S. reliance on copper imports, which make up 45% of consumption, kept the stakes high. Chile, supplying 65% of U.S. imports from 2020 to 2023, has been pushing for exemptions in trade talks.
Copper products, however, weren’t spared—they remain under the 50% tariff, affecting over $15 billion in imports. A full list of impacted products was released in the Federal Register. Thankfully, no immediate shortages loom, as suppliers prepped for duties all year.
On July 30, the White House shared findings from the Secretary of Commerce’s investigation into copper imports. As part of the recommendations, an immediate 30% duty on semi-finished and derivative copper products was proposed.
“In light of these findings,” the White House stated, “the Secretary recommended a range of actions to adjust the imports of copper.” A phased tariff on refined copper—15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028—was also suggested. Domestic sales requirements and export controls for copper materials and scrap were included in the plan.
These future tariffs, though lower than the initial 50% threat, keep markets on edge. MetalMiner noted a key risk: “If the U.S. decides to lower it, markets would have to unravel their expectations.” Such a shift could mean downside pressure on prices.
Despite the chaos, some price trends are worth noting. U.S. copper producer prices for grades 110 and 122 jumped 10.82% to $6.66 per pound by August 1, while grade 102 rose 10.38% to $6.91 per pound. Globally, Korean copper strip prices ticked up 2.76%, while Chinese and Indian prices dipped slightly.
Looking ahead, copper demand isn’t fading—electrification and data center growth will require massive volumes. Yet, supply constraints persist: new mines take decades to develop amid regulatory and environmental hurdles like wastewater management. The Copper Monthly Metals Index rose 1.18% from July to August, but prices hover just above April lows.
For investors, this volatility is a double-edged sword. Stay frugal, watch tariff developments closely, and consider copper’s long-term fundamentals—demand is real, but government meddling can distort markets fast. Diversify your portfolio to weather these policy-driven storms, and keep an eye on Comex for the next big move.