Back-to-school shopping in 2025 is turning into a financial gauntlet for American families. Rising inflation and the specter of new tariffs under President Donald Trump are piling pressure on parents already stretched thin. This isn’t just a seasonal chore—it’s a stark reminder of how policy and economics collide in everyday life.
According to CNBC, with inflation climbing and Trump’s tariff proposals looming, parents are bracing for higher costs on everything from backpacks to notebooks as they prepare for the 2025 school year.
Inflation has been a persistent thorn in the side of household budgets, and 2025 is no exception. According to a Bankrate report polling over 2,600 adults in June 2025, about 20% of back-to-school shoppers say the cost of supplies is straining their finances. A separate Intuit Credit Karma report found that 39% of parents flat-out can’t afford these expenses this year.
Enter President Trump’s new tariff agenda, initially dubbed “liberation day,” which set a 10% baseline levy on nearly all countries and steeper duties on dozens of others. Originally slated for April 2, 2025, the rollout was paused for 90 days, pushing the deadline to August 1, 2025. Shoppers haven’t yet felt the full sting, but the threat of price hikes is real.
“We haven’t seen the tariff impact yet, largely because of the pauses,” noted John Mercer, a Coresight analyst.
“At some point, if tariffs come in, there will be price impacts,” Mercer added, emphasizing that “consumers are right to be concerned.”
The numbers paint a grim picture for family budgets. Intuit Credit Karma reports that 44% of parents plan to take on debt for school supplies in 2025, up from 34% last year. NerdWallet’s data is even more alarming—53% of parents would borrow to fund extracurriculars, and 46% would do so just to help their kids fit in with peers.
Despite higher prices, spending per child is slightly down. The National Retail Federation (NRF) pegs average spending for K-12 families at $858.07 in 2025, compared to $874.68 in 2024, while Deloitte’s survey of over 1,200 parents estimates $570 per child, down from $586 last year. Total spending projections vary, with NRF at $39.4 billion and Deloitte at $30.9 billion.
Why the dip in per-child costs amid inflation? Parents are adapting. Deloitte found 75% will switch brands if prices climb too high, up from 62% in 2024, and 65% will shop at discount retailers over preferred stores.
Frugality is the name of the game for many in 2025. Intuit Credit Karma notes that 56% of parents are slashing nonessential purchases to free up cash for school needs. Meanwhile, 62% of shoppers plan to start buying before August, up from 54% last year, per a Coresight Research report.
“Probably to preempt any price rises,” said John Mercer of Coresight, explaining the early shopping trend.
“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on essentials,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF’s vice president of industry and consumer insights.
Yet, not all hope is lost—there are ways to fight back against these economic headwinds. Consumer savings expert Andrea Woroch suggests shopping for gently used items, using price-tracking tools, applying coupon codes, and leveraging sales-tax holidays in late July and early August 2025. These can ease the burden on big-ticket purchases like computers or clothing.
Let’s be clear: government policies like tariffs often distort free markets, passing costs directly to consumers. For liberty-minded families, this is a call to action—don’t just absorb the hit, outsmart it. Build a buffer by cutting waste now, and consider investing small savings into inflation-resistant assets for future school years.