American drivers could see gas prices start falling within 48 hours, GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan wrote Tuesday, pointing to easing geopolitical tensions with Iran and a ceasefire announced the night before as the catalysts for a potential reversal after weeks of market turmoil.
De Haan, posting on X under the handle @GasBuddyGuy, laid out a timeline that would bring welcome news to households squeezed by rising fuel costs. Newsmax reported that the analyst projected the national average price of gasoline could dip below $4 per gallon within one to two weeks if the downward trend holds.
That forecast matters. For weeks, the conflict with Iran drove volatility in global energy markets, stoking fears of supply disruptions and pushing prices higher at the pump. A ceasefire, announced the night before De Haan's post, appears to have shifted the calculus.
De Haan's projection on X was specific and optimistic:
"Gas prices could start reversing nationally in 48 hours or so, by a few cents every day."
Beyond gasoline, De Haan said diesel fuel may avoid hitting record highs and could fall below $5 per gallon within six to eight weeks. That timeline offers a lifeline for trucking companies and freight operators who pass fuel surcharges along to consumers at the grocery store, the hardware store, and everywhere else goods move on wheels.
Diesel prices had already crossed $5 per gallon for the first time in over three years, a milestone that rippled through supply chains and hit small businesses especially hard.
A few cents a day may sound modest. But compounded over a week or two, that pace would represent a meaningful swing for a family filling up a truck or SUV, and a signal that the worst of the Iran-driven price spike may be behind us.
De Haan's near-term optimism runs into a harder reality farther down the road. The Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts that even if the war ends by late April, gas prices will remain higher than prewar levels through the end of the year and into 2027.
That gap, between a quick dip and a long recovery, is worth understanding. Geopolitical shocks to energy markets don't heal overnight. Supply chains recalibrate slowly. Refinery capacity, shipping routes, and contract pricing all carry forward the costs of disruption long after the headlines cool.
The situation in California, where gas prices jumped 40 cents in just two weeks amid refinery constraints, showed how quickly regional bottlenecks can amplify a national problem. Even if De Haan's forecast plays out nationally, states with tight refinery margins could lag behind.
The White House has not been idle. The Trump administration has faced mounting pressure over rising energy costs and has emphasized efforts to mitigate the impact. Those efforts have included diplomatic engagement aimed at stabilizing the Middle East and domestic policy moves intended to support production and ease supply constraints.
The administration has moved on multiple fronts. It announced plans to lift summer gasoline restrictions, a regulatory step designed to lower costs at the pump during the months when demand peaks and prices typically climb.
Separately, the president signed a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act to address rising oil prices, a move that eased shipping constraints on domestic fuel transport. Both actions reflect a willingness to use executive authority to attack the problem from the supply side, the kind of concrete policy work that doesn't always make the front page but matters at the register.
The broader question is whether diplomatic progress in the Middle East holds. A ceasefire is a start, not a finish. Iran's behavior in the region has been a source of instability for decades, and markets price in risk as much as they price in barrels.
De Haan's 48-hour window gives Americans something to track in real time. If prices at local stations begin ticking down by a few cents a day, the analyst's read of the market will look prescient. If they stall, it may signal that traders remain skeptical of the ceasefire's durability.
The diesel timeline, six to eight weeks to fall below $5, is the one that matters most for inflation. Diesel powers the trucks, trains, and equipment that move goods and build things. When diesel falls, consumer prices eventually follow. When it stays elevated, so does everything else.
High fuel costs have hit working Americans hard in recent weeks, and businesses large and small have scrambled to absorb or pass along the damage. Rideshare companies, for instance, increased fuel discounts for drivers as a stopgap, a sign of just how broadly the pain has spread.
The Energy Information Administration's warning, that prewar price levels won't return until well into 2027, should temper expectations. Relief and recovery are not the same thing. A few cents off the daily price is welcome. But the structural cost of geopolitical instability in energy markets lingers far longer than the crisis that caused it.
If De Haan is right, Americans will start seeing lower numbers on gas station signs within days. That's good news, and it's worth acknowledging. But it didn't happen by accident. Diplomatic pressure, domestic energy policy, and a ceasefire all had to converge to create the conditions for prices to turn.
The lesson is straightforward. Energy prices respond to strength, stability, and supply. When policy encourages all three, consumers benefit. When policy neglects any one of them, families pay the difference every time they fill up the tank.