Brinker International is pushing Chili's into America's middle states and its strongest Sun Belt markets, calling the growth drive a "completely new lever", a sharp contrast to the closures and bankruptcies hitting rival casual-dining chains.
CEO Kevin Hochman told investors the company is targeting 2 to 3 percent unit growth per year, which translates to roughly 20 to 30 new Chili's locations annually over the next few years. The expansion marks a deliberate pivot for a chain that has spent recent years buying back franchise territories rather than building new ones. Now Brinker wants to fill gaps it says it should have filled long ago.
CFO Mika Ware laid out the logic in blunt terms. The middle of the country, the heartland states where Chili's once relied on franchisees, is "underdeveloped," she said. Brinker has already reacquired many of those franchise rights and holds growth rights in all 50 states. The company sees wide-open room to build.
Ware, speaking about the chain's strategy, framed the opportunity as bigger than most outsiders assume:
"Historically, in the middle of the United States, those have been more franchised areas. We've bought a lot of those back. We do have the growth rights in all 50 states, but we're just underdeveloped in those areas."
Even in states where Chili's already dominates, the company sees room to grow. Ware identified California, Texas, and Florida as the chain's strongest existing markets, and said the company is far from finished building in any of them.
"Just when we think we've already built as many Chili's as we can build in Texas and Florida, it's just not true," Ware said. "We have eight in the pipeline right now."
Beyond those Sun Belt anchors, Brinker is eyeing Washington state, where it currently operates just one streetside location, along with the Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia, and the Washington, D.C., metro area. The company has described these as four main target markets for the push, though it has not published a detailed site list.
The strategy stands out in a casual-dining sector littered with contraction. TGI Fridays has shrunk to just 71 locations after a string of permanent closures, and the brand that once defined Friday-night dining is now fighting for survival.
The expansion plan rests on a foundation Brinker spent years building. By reacquiring franchise territories across the heartland, the company gained direct control over where and when to open new restaurants, without negotiating with independent operators who may have lacked the capital or the appetite to build.
That buyback campaign is what executives now call the "completely new lever." Rather than relying on franchisees to decide whether a market deserved another Chili's, Brinker can deploy its own capital and its own site-selection process. For a chain that already performs well in high-population states, the middle of the country represents low-hanging fruit that went unpicked for years.
The contrast with other legacy casual-dining brands is stark. On the Border filed for Chapter 7 liquidation after a rescue effort collapsed, joining a growing list of sit-down chains that could not adapt fast enough to shifting consumer habits and rising costs.
Chili's has taken a different path. The chain has leaned into value pricing and menu simplification at a time when consumers are pushing back hard against restaurant inflation. That operational reset appears to have given Brinker the confidence, and the cash flow, to start building again rather than just defending what it has.
Brinker's expansion bet fits a broader pattern among the casual-dining chains that are still growing. Chili's has rolled out a retro redesign across roughly 1,200 locations, banking on nostalgia and a value-forward pitch to pull customers away from fast-food competitors.
The nostalgia play is not unique to Chili's. Buffalo Wild Wings and Pizza Hut have launched their own throwback menus, trying to recapture diners who remember when sitting down at a chain restaurant felt like an affordable treat rather than a budget stretch.
What separates Chili's from the pack right now is that it is not just redecorating, it is building. Twenty to 30 new locations a year is not a moonshot number, but in a segment where competitors are closing dozens of stores at a time, steady expansion sends a clear signal. Brinker believes the casual-dining customer still exists in large numbers, especially in parts of the country where options have thinned out.
Whether the heartland strategy pays off will depend on execution: site selection, construction costs, staffing in tight labor markets, and whether the value proposition that revived same-store sales can hold up as the footprint grows. Brinker has not disclosed total capital commitments for the buildout or a detailed timeline beyond the "next few years" language Hochman used.
Still, in an industry where survival has become the benchmark, a company that is actually opening doors instead of locking them deserves a second look. The market will sort out whether Brinker's confidence is earned, but at least the bet is pointed in the right direction: toward the customers, and toward the parts of the country that Washington and Wall Street too often forget exist.