Hold onto your wallets—OPEC+ just dropped a bombshell by ramping up oil production in a bid to claw back market dominance.
According to Reuters, in a virtual meeting on August 3, 2025, OPEC+ decided to increase output by 547,000 barrels per day for September, fully reversing their largest cut tranche while navigating geopolitical tensions and strong oil prices near $70 per barrel.
This isn’t a one-off. OPEC+, a coalition of major oil producers including Russia and Kazakhstan, pumps roughly half the world’s crude. They’ve been tightening supply for years to prop up prices, but shifted gears in 2025 to prioritize market share.
The pivot started small in April 2025 with a modest bump of 138,000 barrels per day (bpd). Momentum built fast, with hikes of 411,000 bpd each month from May through July, followed by 548,000 bpd in August.
Now, September’s 547,000 bpd increase marks a total reversal of a massive 2.5 million bpd cut—about 2.4% of global demand. A separate boost for the United Arab Emirates sweetens the deal.
Why now? OPEC+ points to a robust economy and depleted stockpiles as justification, per their statement after the August 3 meeting.
Despite the flood of new barrels, oil prices aren’t buckling. Brent crude closed near $70 per barrel on the Friday before the meeting, a sharp climb from a 2025 low of $58 in April.
Seasonal demand spikes are helping absorb the extra supply. As analyst Giovanni Staunovo of UBS noted, "So far the market has been able to absorb very well those additional barrels." Stockpiling in key markets like China also plays a role, keeping prices elevated even as output grows.
Yet, not all is smooth sailing. The U.S. is pressuring India to curb Russian oil imports, aiming to push Moscow toward peace talks with Ukraine.
With Russia as a key OPEC+ member, these tensions add a layer of uncertainty. Can the group maintain unity?
As Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy cautioned, "OPEC+ has passed the first test." "But the next task will be even harder: deciding if and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels," he added.
Looking ahead, eight OPEC+ members will reconvene on September 7, 2025, to debate reinstating cuts of about 1.65 million bpd, currently set to last through 2026. A separate 2-million-bpd cut across all members also lingers until that date.
For investors, this is a moment to watch. Oil at $70 offers stability, but geopolitical friction or a sudden demand drop could shift the calculus—fast. As Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects observed, strong prices give OPEC+ "some confidence about market fundamentals."
Consider hedging with energy ETFs or diversifying into non-oil assets if volatility spikes. Stay frugal, keep an eye on supply news, and remember: markets reward the patient, not the panicked.