Amid economic and political upheavals, gold prices are reaching unprecedented heights. George Milling-Stanley, a seasoned gold strategist, forecasts further record-setting prices throughout the year.
According to The Street, in 2025, gold's value surged nearly 30%, following a substantial 25% increase in 2024. Over the past year, this cumulative rise has reached an impressive 44%.
Milling-Stanley, with over five decades in the field and a key role in developing the first gold-backed ETF, remains a definitive voice in the industry. His analysis foresees sustained strength and potential profitability for gold amidst the current global turmoil.
Typically, gold's historical annual return since 1971 averages just under 8%. However, recent years have seen a remarkable escalation, with a three-year annualized return now standing at 21.4%.
Since February 2024, the value of gold has not dipped below $2,000 per ounce, establishing a new baseline above $3,000 in 2025. This shift in gold’s pricing structure underscores its resilience and lasting appeal among investors.
"Great runs like this don’t last forever, so fearing a regression to the mean is normal," acknowledges Milling-Stanley, hinting at the volatile nature of market highs. However, he quickly notes the ongoing geopolitical strife, which traditionally benefits gold investments.
"We still have a lot of geopolitical turbulence," Milling-Stanley commented, emphasizing gold's historical performance during such times. "Gold historically has tended to perform well during such times," he adds, reinforcing its reputation as a safe-haven asset.
The strategist also pointed out the current uncertainties surrounding interest rates and macroeconomic conditions, which continue to drive gold's appeal. "We still have an enormous amount of uncertainty on the macroeconomic front as well as geopolitical shock," he elaborated.
Milling-Stanley recalls using gold as a reliable refuge during times of uncertainty throughout his career, underscoring its consistent utility. "When faced with uncertainty, I've always turned to gold in the past and it's served me well," he shared.
This year, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar by about 9%, coupled with inflation rates soaring past the Federal Reserve's 2% target, albeit not consistently, adds layers to gold's allure, albeit not strictly as an inflation hedge.
Gold diversifies investment portfolios, mitigates risks during stock market downturns, and retains value during economic declines. These attributes continue to attract investors, especially during unpredictable market conditions.
"The higher the uncertainty, the higher the upper limit," Milling-Stanley proposes, suggesting that the ceiling for gold's price escalation correlates directly with global instability levels. This perception has prompted State Street to revise its gold price forecasts repeatedly in response to fluctuating global tariff policies.
Milling-Stanley also drew parallels with past financial crises, such as Black Monday in 1987, the dot.com bubble burst, the 2008 financial crisis, and the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, to illustrate gold's performance during significant economic downturns. "Equities took a significant downturn and gold performed very well," he recounted, reinforcing gold’s role as a protective asset.
"I think people are still looking to gold for its protective attributes, rather than hoping that the price will go up so they can sell at a profit tomorrow or next week," said Milling-Stanley. This sentiment encapsulates the current market trend where the intrinsic security of gold outweighs speculative investment motives. It looks very much as if we've established a new floor in the gold price, somewhere above $3,000 an ounce," concluded Milling-Stanley. This statement epitomizes the ongoing shift in gold valuation, heralding a new era where highs may just be the beginning.