The NFL is urging the Supreme Court to treat prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket as gambling apps under state rules, citing integrity risks, a federal loophole, and billions already flowing through the platforms.
The league filed an amicus brief backing New Jersey and nearly 40 other states in a push to put sports-tied prediction markets under the same state gambling laws that govern traditional sportsbooks, not just federal commodities rules.
The New York Post reported that the NFL wants the high court to end a regulatory split that leaves designated contract markets freer of state age minimums, taxes, and consumer safeguards while sports betting volume keeps climbing.
On the first Sunday of the season alone, the league said football drove $1.8 billion in prediction-market trading, more than half of all volume that day. That scale is why the NFL says delay itself is a problem for fans, players, and the product on the field.
New Jersey is leading a challenge to reverse an appellate ruling that treated federal commodities oversight as trumping state gambling authority. Bipartisan attorneys general from 39 states, Native tribes, and the casino industry have lined up behind that effort.
New Jersey’s filing framed the fight in blunt terms. The clash, the state said, “has resulted in a national turf war, splitting the nation’s courts and pitting the States against the federal government.”
The NFL is not claiming prediction markets should vanish. It argues the platforms that offer sports outcomes are operating as gambling venues in practice and should face state rules, including a minimum age of 21.
Under the current Commodity Futures Trading Commission approach, critics say teens as young as 18 can place sports bets while operators sidestep state gambling taxes and penalties that licensed books pay.
Breitbart reported the same core dispute: CFTC securities-style supervision versus state gambling regimes built around consumer protection and revenue rules states already enforce.
"This split of authority, and the consequent uncertainty about the regulatory oversight of sports wagering on DCMs [designated contract markets], pose a significant challenge to the NFL’s game-integrity and consumer-protection efforts,"
the league wrote in its brief.
"Absent the clarity that only this Court can provide, DCM operators will continue exploiting the gap between state and federal regulation, endangering consumers and the integrity of sports events across the country."
The NFL’s brief zeros in on contracts that invite insider edges and easy manipulation. Examples include a kicker missing a field goal on purpose or a receiver dumping a catch, moves that can swing a contract without needing a full game fix.
Bets tied to injuries and officiating raise the same red flag. People with early information can trade before the public knows anything. The league wants those pressures off the field and out of the locker room.
Fox News reported the NFL’s sharper warning on volume and delay: “Billions of dollars will be bet on NFL games through prediction markets each season, and any delay from the Court will result in increasing consumer harm and risk to game integrity.”
The same filing flagged CFTC inaction on contracts the league had already called out, markets on coaching choices, officiating, and injuries that operators continued to list. That gap, the NFL said, creates real risk for players, coaches, officials, and the people putting money in.
Federal appeals courts have already split on whether states or Washington control these platforms. That patchwork is exactly what the league and the states want the Supreme Court to clean up.
Kalshi and Polymarket reject the NFL’s framing. They say they run surveillance tools, work with federal regulators, and already partner with other major leagues.
A Kalshi spokesperson told the Post the firm’s first job is market integrity and pointed to partnerships the NFL has refused.
"Kalshi’s top priority is the integrity of its markets. That priority is reflected in the fact that every other major sports league and integrity partner in the United States is partnering with Kalshi, including the MLB, NHL, and others,"
The same spokesperson said the CFTC is already policing sports-related markets now listed across U.S. commodities exchanges, with ongoing rulemaking and the same federal enforcement stack that covers trillions in other trading.
Polymarket struck a similar note, saying it shares the league’s interest in clean games and prefers one federal framework over “a patchwork of disconnected state laws built for a bygone era.”
"Polymarket shares the NFL’s commitment to preserving the integrity of the game, which is why we’ve built advanced market surveillance tools and are actively collaborating with the CFTC, SEC, and other professional leagues toward a harmonized federal framework that delivers a stronger, more consistent form of integrity compared to a patchwork of disconnected state laws built for a bygone era."
Kalshi also said it has tried to engage the NFL and gotten no reply. Fox News reporting added that the CFTC has said the league declined a memorandum of understanding that would have tightened integrity coordination.
The partnership map is uneven. MLB, the NHL, UFC, and Major League Soccer have deals with one or both platforms. The NBA and PGA, like the NFL, have stayed out.
The NFL has gone further with an advertising ban and a refusal to sign marketing deals. Commissioner Roger Goodell told CNBC Sport in September the league is willing to wait rather than rush the wrong model.
"We don’t feel like we have to be the first in this. We feel like we’re going to be right, and the best thing to do is be patient."
Kalshi launched in the U.S. in July 2021. Polymarket followed in December 2025. Both have announced insider-trading policies after high-profile blowups forced the issue into public view.
In August, Kalshi handed former Rep. George Santos its first lifetime ban after he allegedly pulled in more than $17,000 betting on his own State of the Union attendance.
This spring, federal prosecutors charged an Army officer with making $400,000 on Polymarket by trading on classified information tied to the military operation aimed at Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.
Government employees and business insiders have also been reported banking thousands on futures-style contracts. Those cases are why the NFL keeps stressing price manipulation and asymmetric information, not abstract theory.
Separately, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed lawsuits accusing Polymarket and Kalshi of running illegal gambling operations. That state-level enforcement track runs parallel to the Supreme Court fight over who sets the rules in the first place.
The NFL’s ask is straightforward: treat these sports contracts like the gambling they function as, give states the tools they already use on sportsbooks, and stop operators from living in the gap between federal commodities law and state gaming codes.
That means a 21-and-over floor, state tax treatment, and clearer limits on contracts that turn injuries, officials, and easy player choices into trading edges. It also means an end to dueling circuit rulings that leave fans and leagues guessing which rulebook applies.
Prediction markets can exist. The league’s brief says they should not get a free pass from the consumer rules and integrity standards every legal sportsbook already faces.
When billions ride on Sundays and insiders keep finding angles, pretending a sports bet is just another commodity trade is a regulatory fiction states are right to challenge.