Nike is heading into earnings later this week under fresh pressure, with an Evercore ISI analyst warning the sportswear giant’s first-quarter update could become another reset moment for a battered stock.
Yahoo Finance reported Monday that Evercore ISI analyst Michael Binetti issued a note titled “F1Q Update Could be Another Reset Moment,” arguing retailer pullbacks may force Nike to signal weaker revenue further out.
The call lands on a company already deep in a slide. Shares are down about 25% since Nike’s last earnings report on May 28, trade near a 52-week low, and sit 53% below their year-ago peak. The market cap has been roughly cut in half since the 2021 highs.
Investors are not watching a minor dip. They are watching a brand that once defined athletic retail lose altitude in plain sight.
Binetti’s core warning is straightforward. Nike’s last guidance already pointed to a slower path. Now he believes the order book is worse than the Street has baked in.
He laid out the company’s prior map in blunt terms.
Michael Binetti of Evercore ISI wrote:
"Nike's last guidance gave visibility to revenues decelerating from -1% year over year in F4Q26 (May 2026 quarter reported revs) to down low/mid-single digits in F1Q27, and then decelerating further from that in F2Q27,"
That was the baseline. The Street then built a recovery story on top of it.
Binetti said Nike had already cut its China assumptions and talked up better product for Spring 2027. Consensus took that to mean revenue would bottom in the first half of fiscal 2027 at about -4% year over year, then improve to flat in the second half.
He does not buy the clean second-half rebound.
Binetti added:
"Nike already significantly lowered its embedded China assumptions, and talked about improving innovation for Spring 2027... together resulting in current consensus assuming revenues will bottom in F1H27 at -4% year over year, and then improve to flat year over year in F2H27. Since the F4Q call, we think the brand has seen cancellations or negative order revisions from retailers for Spring 2027 that we think will translate to further negativity in Nike's F2H27 revenue outlook."
That is analyst judgment, not a company admission. But it is the kind of judgment that moves money when a stock is already wounded.
Binetti also tied the timing to management change. Nike has a new CFO coming in, and the firm has hinted it may wait until a November analyst day before restoring full-year guidance.
He thinks waiting could backfire if near-term numbers keep slipping.
Binetti argued:
"While Nike has hinted that it would likely not reintroduce annual guidance (and give a full picture for FY27) until the November analyst day, we think with a new CFO joining, it might make sense to signal F2H27 revenues lower on this call, especially if the company wants to keep investors focused on its longer-term turnaround story at the November analyst day (and not get tangled up in near-term revisions on that important day)."
In plain English: clean up the outlook now, or spend November defending the short term instead of selling the turnaround.
Markets punish delayed candor. They usually reward it less than executives hope, but they punish the alternative harder.
Nike’s last major print did not calm nerves. In late June the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $11 billion. That was a 1% decline as reported and a 4% drop on a currency-neutral basis.
Diluted earnings came in at $0.72 per share. A huge chunk of that was a one-time $0.52-per-share benefit from an expected tariff recovery. Strip out the special item and the quality of the quarter looks thinner than the headline EPS.
Guidance after that report already pointed to further deceleration into fiscal 2027. Binetti’s note says the slope may still be too optimistic.
Pressure is not limited to Nike’s own stores and app. In late August, Dick’s Sporting Goods warned on its business in part because Nike was heavily discounting slow-moving product.
When a category leader clears inventory with a knife, everyone else’s margins take a hit. Retail partners notice. So do investors who own both names.
That kind of channel friction is how a brand problem becomes a sector problem.
Brand optics have not helped. This month, soccer star Kylian Mbappé ended his long-term Nike tie-up and said he is joining Swiss sports company On. Big athlete exits do not by themselves set revenue. They do signal where cultural momentum is drifting.
Index math delivered another blow. Last week Nike was removed from the S&P 100, ending an 18-year run in the blue-chip basket. Index deletions are backward-looking, but they still reduce automatic ownership and underline how far the stock has fallen from its old peer set.
At last close, Nike shares were at $36.39, up $0.64, or 1.79%, on the session. One green day does not reverse a multi-year drawdown.
Put the tape together. Roughly half the market value since the 2021 highs is gone. More than half the price from the year-ago peak is gone. A quarter of the value since the May 28 report is gone. The stock sits near its 52-week low heading into another earnings week.
That is not a vibes story. It is a scoreboard story.
Binetti’s “reset moment” framing matters because Nike has already walked investors through one painful reset cycle of slower growth, cut China hopes, and promises of better innovation later. If Spring 2027 orders are being revised down now, the next reset is not theoretical.
Company leadership still has a November analyst day to sell a longer turnaround. First it has to get through this week’s update without another confidence break.
Public markets remain a blunt instrument. They do not grade press releases, athlete campaigns, or brand nostalgia. They grade orders, revenue, and whether guidance survives contact with retailers. Nike’s shareholders have been living that lesson for years, and this week will show whether management is ready to price it in before the market does it for them.