The Iran war's disruption of global oil markets has drained more than $100 billion from American consumers through higher fuel costs this year, and the relief, according to one leading economist, is nowhere in sight.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told Fox Business that elevated gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices tied to the conflict have added roughly $115 billion in extra energy spending for U.S. consumers. Divided across American households, that works out to about $860 per family, money that comes straight out of grocery budgets, vacation plans, and already-thin savings accounts.
The mechanism is straightforward. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran's coast through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply flows, has become a chokepoint. Iranian attacks and sea mines have throttled tanker traffic to levels Zandi described as "well, well below what it was before the war started." The U.S. Navy has stepped in to escort vessels through the strait, and Persian Gulf nations have shifted oil onto alternative pipelines, but the supply gap has kept pump prices above $4 a gallon.
Zandi drew a sharp line between how the war's costs fall across income brackets. Wealthier Americans, he said, are largely insulated.
"Folks that are in the top part of the income and wealth distribution, the well-to-do, they're doing fine. They've got a job. They don't have much in the way of debt. If they have any debt, it's a mortgage that's sitting on a very low interest rate, they own a lot of stocks and benefit from the run-up in stock value."
For everyone else, the picture is grimmer. Zandi said lower- and middle-income Americans have watched their real incomes, wages adjusted for inflation, stall or shrink since the war began. Those households own little or no stock, may not own a home, and carry heavier debt loads.
"The high energy costs, the fact that we're paying over $4 a gallon, it really matters to those folks."
The $860 figure is an average. For a two-car family commuting to hourly jobs in a spread-out metro area, the true hit is almost certainly larger. For a Manhattan apartment dweller who takes the subway, it is smaller. The average masks the pain where it concentrates most.
Zandi credited one policy with softening the blow, but only temporarily. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act delivered larger tax refund checks earlier this year, and that extra cash helped households absorb higher fuel costs through roughly May or June.
"People got bigger tax refund checks this year than last year because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. That helped up and through probably May, maybe into June, but those tax cuts are now in the rearview mirror, so households are still stuck paying over $4 a gallon."
With refund season over, families no longer have that buffer. Gasoline prices remain elevated heading into fall, and Zandi offered no expectation of a quick drop.
Governments on both sides of the Pacific have tapped emergency stockpiles to keep markets from spiraling further. The United States released oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and China and India drew down their own national reserves. Those releases helped cushion prices, but they come at a cost: inventories now need to be rebuilt, and that process will itself compete for supply.
Zandi acknowledged the reserves bought time but warned the drawdown creates its own drag.
"That's helped cushion the blow, but we won't get back to normal, if that's the right word, for some time until those inventories are replenished and that could take a while."
Meanwhile, countries bordering the Persian Gulf have rerouted oil through pipelines to bypass the strait. Global producers are ramping up output because high prices make new drilling profitable. But Zandi cautioned that none of these adjustments happen fast.
"That'll happen, but that takes time. That's not next week, next month, next quarter, may not even be next year."
Perhaps the most sobering part of Zandi's assessment is what happens after the fighting stops. He argued that oil prices are unlikely to return to their pre-war baseline under most realistic scenarios. The risk of the conflict restarting would keep insurance premiums elevated for any tanker transiting the Persian Gulf, and those costs get passed directly to consumers.
"I don't think they go back to where they were pre-war because, in most scenarios, you still have to worry about the conflict restarting and the strait being shut down again. Insurance companies will demand a higher premium to pay for the risk of insuring tankers that go through the Persian Gulf."
So even in a best-case diplomatic outcome, American drivers, shippers, and airlines would keep paying a war premium baked into every barrel that crosses, or once crossed, the Strait of Hormuz.
The $860 per household is not a projection or a model. It is money already spent, pulled from wallets that were already stretched. And if the Moody's economist is right that relief is quarters or years away, the final tab will be considerably higher. Wars always cost more than the Pentagon budget line. This one is showing up at the gas pump, in the grocery aisle, and on every shipping invoice in America, and the families least able to absorb it are absorbing the most.