Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stood in the Brady Briefing Room on Wednesday and told American workers to do something that sounds simple: change your paycheck withholding so you keep more of your money now. The advice came with good intentions. But tax professionals say the mechanics are anything but simple, and getting it wrong could leave millions of filers staring at a bill next April instead of a refund.
Bessent's pitch, reported by CNBC, centered on the tax breaks Congress passed last July in President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." That law created new deductions for 2025, covering tip income, overtime earnings, seniors, and auto loan interest, among other provisions. Because the IRS did not update its withholding tables for employers after the bill's enactment, many workers have been over-withheld all year. The result: fatter refunds at filing time, but smaller paychecks in the meantime.
The Treasury Secretary framed the fix as a raise workers can give themselves.
"If you change your withholding, then you will get an automatic real wage increase... on a weekly or a monthly basis, and you will be able to keep more of your money this calendar year."
That is true, in theory. The IRS's own data shows the average refund for individual filers hit $3,462 as of April 3, up from $3,116 about a year earlier. A larger refund means more money was withheld than necessary. Workers who adjust correctly can redirect that cash into their paychecks. The problem, experts say, is the word "correctly."
When the One Big Beautiful Bill Act became law in July, it introduced deductions that applied retroactively to 2025 income. But the IRS announced it would not change the withholding tables employers use to calculate how much federal tax to pull from each paycheck. That decision meant the tax code moved in one direction while payroll systems stayed put.
For workers, the gap created a mismatch. Their paychecks continued to reflect the old tax math, while the new law lowered what they actually owed. The difference showed up as larger-than-expected refunds during filing season, money the government held interest-free for months.
Bessent wants workers to close that gap themselves. Newsmax reported that Bessent cited Treasury data showing 45 percent of taxpayers increased their refunds through at least one of the new tax provisions. He singled out the overtime deduction as the most popular benefit.
"I will tell you that the biggest one of those that Americans have taken is no tax on overtime."
The logic is straightforward: if the new law cut your taxes and the withholding tables haven't caught up, you are lending the government your money. Adjust your W-4, and the money lands in your bank account sooner.
John Nowak, a certified financial planner and CPA who founded Alo Financial Planning in Mount Prospect, Illinois, told CNBC that blanket suggestions to change paycheck withholdings could have "negative consequences" during next year's filing season. Paycheck withholdings, he noted, are "simply estimates." They should be updated for specific life changes, "changes in income, marital status and children", not on a whim prompted by a press briefing.
Nowak urged workers to use the free IRS tax withholding estimator rather than making what he called "haphazard changes." The online tool walks filers through their income, deductions, and credits, then generates a suggested Form W-4 to hand to an employer. It is not glamorous, but it is calibrated to the individual, not to a one-size-fits-all talking point.
Tommy Lucas, a CFP at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida, offered a more hands-on shortcut. He said a "quick calculation" starts with reviewing the "total tax" on line 24 of the second page of a 2025 tax return. If a worker's 2026 earnings and tax situation look similar to 2025, the total federal liability should be roughly the same. Divide that number by the number of pay periods, and you have a target for per-paycheck withholding.
Lucas also noted that for many taxpayers, "not much is changing" between 2025 and 2026, meaning the 2025 return is a reasonable baseline. But that baseline only works if the filer's circumstances hold steady. A raise, a job change, a new baby, a side gig, any of those can throw the math off.
The danger Nowak and Lucas are flagging is not abstract. Workers who reduce their withholding too aggressively will enjoy bigger paychecks now, and then discover next spring that they underpaid. The IRS does not treat that lightly. Filers who owe more than a threshold amount can face penalties and interest on top of the balance due.
Some tax experts have already taken to social media to criticize Bessent's advice, though specific posts were not detailed. The concern is that a cabinet secretary encouraging millions of people to tinker with their W-4s, without emphasizing the tools and guardrails, could set off a wave of withholding errors. The Treasury did not respond to CNBC's request for comment on the experts' concerns.
That silence is worth noting. If the administration believes workers should adjust their withholding, the responsible follow-up is a clear, public guide, not just a press-briefing sound bite. The IRS already has the estimator tool and Form W-4 available online. Workers can also make a direct payment to the IRS if they realize mid-year that they've under-withheld. But none of those steps are intuitive, and recent IRS processing delays have already shaken taxpayer confidence in the agency's ability to handle routine filings smoothly.
None of this means Bessent is wrong on the underlying point. The Trump tax law delivered real benefits, deductions for overtime, tips, and other income that working Americans actually earn. The fact that the IRS chose not to update withholding tables after a major piece of tax legislation is itself a bureaucratic failure. Workers should not have to wait for a refund check to see the benefit of a law Congress already passed.
The new charitable deduction, up to $1,000 for single filers or $2,000 for married couples filing jointly who don't itemize, is another provision that could affect the math. Workers who claimed it on their 2025 returns may find their actual tax liability lower than what the old withholding tables assumed. That gap is real money, and Bessent is right that it belongs in workers' pockets, not in a government holding account.
But the delivery matters. A filing season that has already seen refunds jump more than 10 percent is proof that the withholding system is out of sync with the law. The fix, though, requires precision, not enthusiasm.
For workers who want to act on Bessent's advice, the path is clear: pull up your 2025 return, check line 24, run the IRS withholding estimator, and submit an updated W-4 to your employer. If your life hasn't changed much since last year, the adjustment should be manageable. If it has, new job, new spouse, new dependent, proceed carefully, or talk to a professional.
And for anyone tempted to just slash their withholding and hope for the best, remember that the IRS has a long memory and new policies that can freeze refunds over paperwork gaps. The last thing a working family needs is a surprise tax bill because Washington gave advice without the fine print.
Bessent's instinct is sound: Americans should keep more of what they earn, and a tax system that over-withholds by default is a quiet tax on workers' cash flow. The Trump administration delivered the policy. Now it needs to deliver the follow-through, clear guidance, updated tables, and a withholding system that matches the law on the books.
Good policy deserves good execution. Workers who trusted Washington enough to change their W-4s deserve better than a shrug if the math goes sideways.